SWODY2
SPC AC 010520
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AND...AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS...AS THE CLOSED LOW PORTION
OF BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...FORCING THE NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL REACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING...GRADUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN EVOLVING BROADER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN...A SLOWLY DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BEFORE NEW CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE ADVANCING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN STATES EARLY MONDAY.
..MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PERHAPS A
LARGER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTERACTION WITH A MODEST RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...WHILE IT NOW
SEEMS PROBABLE THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ...MAXIMUM CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
WEAK HEATING BENEATH DRY SLOT WITHIN WARM SECTOR COULD SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS BY MID DAY SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
MISSOURI/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY
SUPPRESS HAIL POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A 50+ KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID
STORM MOTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE CONVECTION
WEAKENS WEST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.
.KERR.. 12/01/2007
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