SWODY2
SPC AC 061646
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1046 AM CST THU DEC 06 2007
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY ZONAL FLOW IS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE MERIDIONAL
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS THE PERIOD
POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD...
TAKING ON A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
..GREAT BASIN REGION...
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF UTAH AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WEAK 700-500MB LIFTED INDICES AROUND
0C TO -1C. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
.AFWA.. 12/06/2007
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