SWODY2
SPC AC 081733
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST SAT DEC 08 2007
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW -- NEAR THE BASE OF THE LARGER WRN U.S. TROUGH -- IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME
UPSTREAM RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AS SECONDARY
WAVE DEAMPLIFIES/SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO S
TX MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..CENTRAL AND SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION
AND VICINITY...TO THE COOL SIDE OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...LITTLE
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY A VERY
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SLIGHTLY GREATER -- BUT STILL SMALL -- THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL MAY PERSIST WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS SEWD OVER THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THIS THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS WELL. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
.GOSS.. 12/08/2007
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