SWODY2
SPC AC 281728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO SE CANADA AS
A BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CONUS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF VA...NC...SC AND GA. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WITH STORM
COVERAGE EXPANDING AS SFC HEATING OCCURS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AS A LOW-LEVEL JET ORGANIZES IN THE ERN GULF COAST STATES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER 06Z IN SRN MS...AL AND WRN GA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
HOWEVER MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PRESENT HIGH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE SCENARIO ATTM.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXIT REGION OF AN
IMPRESSIVE 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE JET MOVES INLAND BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z BUT NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.
.BROYLES.. 12/28/2007
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