SWODY3
SPC AC 040704
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2007
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE DIGGING WEST OF NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z THURSDAY...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AND...AN IMPULSE... WHICH HAS YET TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...MAY BE FORCED NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN TO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. BUT...GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DESTABILIZATION OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...WITH
CONTINUING NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
.KERR.. 12/04/2007
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