SWOD48
SPC AC 020947
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2007
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AS
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL DAYS 4 /WED/ AND 5
/THU/...WHILE A POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH TRACKS SEWD ALONG THE W COAST
DURING DAYS 5 AND 6 /FRI/. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS WRN TROUGH
PROGRESSIVE BEYOND DAY 6...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE TREND OF A
LARGE CUT-OFF LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN BAJA REGION DAYS 4
AND 5 SHOULD THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO WRN TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND ON A MORE SRN ROUTE INTO CENTRAL/
SRN TX ON DAY 6 /FRI/. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR TSTMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO TX COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AN AREA...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
.PETERS.. 12/02/2007
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