SWOD48
SPC AC 030930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST MON DEC 03 2007
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A
THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES/BAJA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A SEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A RETURN
FLOW INLAND THROUGH A POTENTIALLY LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION...AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
INCREASE. BUT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND LARGELY
ON SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH INTO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
ARE A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THE MOMENT...WITH A
LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AMONG MODELS...AND AMONG MREF
MEMBERS.
.KERR.. 12/03/2007
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