SWOD48
SPC AC 050909
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST WED DEC 05 2007
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES...INCLUDING THOSE EMANATING FROM THE SLOW MOVING
AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...IS
LARGE. AND...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY GENERALLY WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SO...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT
THE HEAVY RAIN/WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS...ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT
..WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS COMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
.KERR.. 12/05/2007
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