SWOD48
SPC AC 060953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST THU DEC 06 2007
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...DIGGING
INTO THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA...BY LATE THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
BE FORCED EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
IS LARGE. UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD AIR SURGE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT...IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL NOT OCCUR...AT LEAST TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY...DAY4/DAY5...TIME FRAME.
A STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/OHIO
VALLEY...AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...COULD PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS
NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AND...IF THIS OCCURS...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BUT...LARGE UNCERTAINTY/LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT PRECLUDES DELINEATING A SEVERE THREAT
AREA.
.KERR.. 12/06/2007
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