SWOD48
SPC AC 070953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST FRI DEC 07 2007
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NNEWD FROM BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
WELL WEST OF WARM SECTOR MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH NERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SHIFT FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL AND NWD EXTENT OF RECOVERY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POST FRONTAL WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...PARTS OF
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE RISK AREA ON MONDAY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
BY DAY 5 LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH ERN TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SERN STATES. SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST ON TUESDAY DAY 5 OVER PARTS OF
SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL
ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF FORCING...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS TIME.
.DIAL.. 12/07/2007
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