DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090928
SWOD48
SPC AC 090927

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2007

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S.
WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...MS AND OH VALLEYS DAY 4.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE TN VALLEY THAT WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES BY DAY 5. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...AND WITH THE
WAVE EXPECTED TO EJECT WEST OF WARM SECTOR...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INTRODUCING A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME.

BEYOND DAY 5 MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFTS IT INTO THE SERN STATES DAY 6...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND MREF SHOW A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LACK OF
CYCLOGENESIS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS PERIOD AND KEEP THE
PRIMARY MOIST SECTOR OFFSHORE.

.DIAL.. 12/09/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.