SWOD48
SPC AC 120957
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST WED DEC 12 2007
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS CONVERGED TO ECMWF WITH UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH DAY
4. ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
FRIDAY (DAY 3) SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS SATURDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES WITH SURFACE PATTERN
EVOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE...THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT SUGGESTS
MOISTURE RETURN INLAND MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND CONFINED TO AREAS
NEAR THE GULF COAST AND FL WHERE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY
EXIST. CONCERNS REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM WARM SECTOR LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA
WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME. BEYOND DAY 4 HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF UNTIL ABOUT DAY 8.
.DIAL.. 12/12/2007
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