SWOD48
SPC AC 180933
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2007
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT EXISTS OVER PORTIONS GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS
VALLEY...OVERLAPPING DAY 4-5 CONVECTIVE PERIODS OR 21ST-23RD IN Z
TIME. DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH PROGGED ACROSS SWRN CONUS
DAY-4/21ST-22ND SHOULD PIVOT NEWD TOWARD GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY...POSSIBLY WITH CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE...THROUGH
DAY-6/23RD-24TH. THOUGH DIVERGING ON SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DETAILS AND TILT OF WAVE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
PACKAGES AGREE IN GENERAL WITH THIS SCENARIO. THOSE SHORTWAVE
DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE IMPORTANT TO DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF
RESULTING DEEP SFC LOW AND TO FOCUSING SPECIFIC AREAS OF ENHANCED
SVR POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG FROPA WITH FIRST
PERTURBATION...GEOMETRY OF PROGGED SFC PATTERN NEAR GULF COAST...AND
CURRENT STATE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION...EACH INDICATE PROBABILITY
OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND THAN WITH WEAKER DAY-2/DAY-3
SYSTEM. SRN/SERN PORTION OF STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OVERLAP
MOIST SECTOR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR EVENT.
.EDWARDS.. 12/18/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment