SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011248
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-011545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST SAT DEC 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTH CENTRAL/NERN KS...ERN NEB...WRN/SRN
IA...FAR NRN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 011248Z - 011545Z
GREATEST FREEZING RAINFALL RATES THROUGH 18Z ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN NEB INTO WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SRN IA AND INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL-NERN MO WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH PER HOUR.
AREAS SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-FAR SERN NEB...ALL OF NRN/NERN KS AND
INTO NWRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32 F.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED PRECIPITATION EXPANDING AND INCREASING IN
RATES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO/IA...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITHIN
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA. SSWLY LLJ
EXTENDING INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE TO
70 KT BY 18Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD ZONE OF WAA RESULTING IN
CHANGING PTYPES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. LOCATIONS IN NW
THROUGH CENTRAL IA INCLUDING DSM TO SRN IA/NERN MO AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF W CENTRAL IL THAT INITIALLY BEGIN WITH SNOW OR SLEET ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE AS LOW LEVEL
WAA INCREASES. A CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
TRANSITION TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WITH HIGH RATES AS MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NWD ALONG STRONG LLJ.
.PETERS.. 12/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
39599506 39639784 40139925 41459944 42399884 42849777
42919600 42009352 41249170 40488998 39688989 39639295
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