SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031146
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-031445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 AM CST MON DEC 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...VT/NH/ME
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 031146Z - 031445Z
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO ME THIS
MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF SIMILAR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
NH/VT. THE HIGHEST RATES SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR RANGE
THROUGH 15-18Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. ASCENT WITH LEAD
TROUGH HAS AIDED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO 12Z
ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NH INTO SWRN ME...WITH THESE SNOWFALL RATES
SPREADING NEWD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL ME THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL LOBES OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO DEEPENING GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS VT/NH THROUGH 15Z
AND THEN INTO ME DURING THE LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED RAPID DEEPENING /2 MB/HR/ OF COASTAL
SURFACE LOW...LOCATED JUST E OF LONG ISLAND AT 11Z...WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150-240 METERS/
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS SERN MA/CAPE COD AREA
TOWARD THE GULF OF ME WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS N OF LOW TRACK BACKING
AND STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. RESULTANT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS ME/NH WILL ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FOR GREATER SNOWFALL RATES. THE STRONG UVVS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
PTYPE TO REMAIN SNOW.
.PETERS.. 12/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
44636851 44106945 43657025 43147079 42817137 42787244
43307281 44127291 44617296 44997258 45057149 45497113
45687062 45937015 45856923 45136821
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