SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111156
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-111800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI...MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL
MI...FAR NRN IND/NWRN OH
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 111156Z - 111800Z
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD FROM
ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN IL ACROSS FAR NRN IND/NWRN OH AND MUCH OF
SRN/CENTRAL MI OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES
UP TO 0.10 WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO ICE TOTALS OVER 0.25 INCHES
IN SOME AREAS. FREEZING WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE FROM ERN
IA ACROSS FAR SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI...WITH SNOW/SLEET MIX NORTH
OF THIS AXIS.
STRONG WAA WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PROGRESS OF A LARGE SWATH OF MIXED
PRECIP FROM ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN IL EWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MI ...NRN
IND AND NWRN OH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR NRN
IND AND NWRN OH AND ALL OF LOWER MI. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED
WITH WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OFFSET
THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING ISOTHERM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEPTH OF THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI SOUTH OF I-69...AND NRN IND/NWRN OH.
NORTH OF I-69...A MIX OF SLEET/MODERATE SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE. GIVEN THE EWD SHIFT OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION...A DIMINISHING TREND OF PRECIPITATION OVER ERN IA...NRN IL
AND SRN WI IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THROUGH 15Z.
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING UVM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
RATES. HOWEVER...COOLING LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX OF
SLEET/SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 15-18Z.
.CROSBIE.. 12/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
43988781 43688964 43119111 42699158 41889195 40829135
40679029 41258785 41438586 41608366 42178331 43368243
44178282 44418417
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