SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141751
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SWRN KS...OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 141751Z - 142345Z
HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL KS WITH
HRLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN LIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW BURSTS
TO 2 IN/HR MAY OCCUR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING CONTINUES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WITH RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING. WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...A WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING DOES
EXIST EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS WILL LIKELY
YIELD PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION
AND COOLING ALOFT TRANSITIONS IT TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE NEAR AN AXIS FROM FAR NRN TX INTO
SWRN/CNTRL KS WHERE AXIS OF DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HERE...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PROVIDE
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25-50 J/KG MUCAPE LIFTING A PARCEL FROM
BETWEEN 700-600 MB.
.JEWELL.. 12/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
38739854 38089848 37069946 35620084 35630138 35920181
36220184 37190160 37990103 38510047 39019955 38989901
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