SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221838
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-222015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...WRN MS...ERN AR...WRN TN AND MO BOOTHEEL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221838Z - 222015Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN LA...
ERN AR...WRN MS...WRN TN AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NEAR LIT SSWWD TO NEAR LCH
AT 18Z. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 100 TO 500
J/KG...STORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH/JET MAX
LOCATED OVER OK/TX. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NEAR THE MS RIVER WILL
INTENSIFY TO NEAR 50 KT BY 00Z AND SHIFT EWD INTO ERN MS/MIDDLE
TN...AIDING IN NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EVEN THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND THE FORECAST OF A WARM LAYER/CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 800-700
MB ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE STRONG
DYNAMICS...DIURNAL HEATING AND EXTREME WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
.IMY.. 12/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
31449199 31969253 34909132 36639028 36738906 36408857
34508893 31569081
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