SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301815
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-301945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...SERN GA...ERN SC AND SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301815Z - 301945Z
VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SERN GA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... THOUGH THE
THREAT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
AT 18Z...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED NEAR A OGB-VDI-MAI
LINE. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE STRONGER FORCING...CURRENTLY SPREADING THROUGH
AL/NWRN GA...AHEAD OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE
MS RIVER. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND BECOMES MORE STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE
ONGOING CONVECTION IS COOL AND STABLE...AND COMBINED WITH POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY WITHIN THE REGION
OF STRONGER FORCING.
.IMY.. 12/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
31158213 29968413 30458459 31818261 33198106 35067901
34697801 33007989 31978114
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