SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310309
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-310615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/SERN NY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 310309Z - 310615Z
SNOW RATES ARE INCREASING AND MAY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST 31/06Z.
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE POCONO AND CATSKILL MOUNTAINS
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MAXIMIZED BETWEEN NOW AND 31/06Z...AS 100
KT 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. SNOW
RATES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION... IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL WAVE
MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SOMEWHAT
LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW...CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HOURLY SNOW RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1/2-1 INCH. AND...MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MAY SUPPORT A FEW CONVECTIVE
BURSTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY PRIOR TO
06Z...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
.KERR.. 12/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
41297441 41087503 40907600 41067650 41427671 41877659
42667537 42997471 42977393 42597356 41927361 41427433
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