MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2278

ACUS11 KWNS 310522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310522
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-310815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MA...SRN VT...SRN NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 310522Z - 310815Z

THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS NOW EAST OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE AIR MASS FINALLY SATURATES
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 31/06Z. AND...A SUB-FREEZING ENVIRONMENT INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS LIKELY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY SNOW.

IT STILL APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH/
NORTHWEST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. AS AN INITIAL 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
WEAKENS AND PROPAGATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA INTO THE LONG ISLAND AREA THROUGH THE 31/06-09Z TIME
FRAME. AND...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...THROUGH THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR DENDRITIC ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW RATES MAY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR...WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING
CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BEFORE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS
EAST/NORTHEAST OF REGION AFTER 31/09Z.

.KERR.. 12/31/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

43017351 43497288 43897225 44407142 43927102 43147106
42377212 42127302 42277362

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