SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311112
MEZ000-NHZ000-311515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO DOWN EAST MAINE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 311112Z - 311515Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH HOURLY RATES
APPROACHING ONE INCH WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO MID
MORNING. SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS REGION BEGINNING AROUND 12Z.
AS OF 1045Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW FROM PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN MA THROUGH SERN NH AND
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN INTO DOWN EAST ME...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MOVING 230/40-50 KT. SHORT TERM NAM/RUC
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IS WELL CORRELATED WITH A SIMILARLY ORIENTED REGION OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /AS SEEN IN NORMAL F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
FIELDS/ WHICH IS MOST PROMINENT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
FORCING IS FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE AROUND 12Z...PRIOR TO SHIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...TO THE NW OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.
WHILE RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY STABLE TO UPRIGHT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS...THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE INSTABILITIES GIVEN
POCKETS OF NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY.
THIS WOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE ABOVEMENTIONED...MESOSCALE BRANCH OF
ASCENT...EFFECTIVELY PROMOTING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES.
A FAIRLY RAPID CESSATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BY 12Z
OVER SWRN ME WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
.MEAD.. 12/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
43237126 43957100 44876957 45496845 45416762 45126714
44776714 44326831 43726966 43087052 42937103
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