SWODY1
SPC AC 060046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2008
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NRN CA THROUGH WRN ORE AND WA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN CA AND THE PACIFIC
NW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL
CA VALLEY NWD INTO COASTAL REGIONS OF NRN CA AND ORE WHERE COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C OR LESS AT 500 MB HAS OVERTAKEN
BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 40...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
MUCAPE. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CASCADE AND SIERRA NEVADA
RANGES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A CATEGORICAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
..LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...
ASCENT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING AN EWD ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE OVERTAKEN AN AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR RETURNING
NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SWRN TN AND NWRN AL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE ASCENT AND THERMAL TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS.
.DIAL.. 01/06/2008
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