SWODY1
SPC AC 120049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2008
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER BULK OF CONUS EXCEPT W
COAST STATES...ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NERN MEX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS QUE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION HAS BEEN DIFFUSED
SOMEWHAT BY STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE BAND NOW
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE. FRONT EXTENDS SSWWD OVER SRN SC TO ERN FL
PANHANDLE...SWWD ACROSS NERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY FROM NEAR GA COAST SWWD OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ALIGNED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APCHG 4-CORNERS REGION SHOULD
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12/12Z. EVEN THOUGH
THIS PERTURBATION WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY
AND STABLE FOR TSTMS.
..SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN
BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INVOF
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT. A FEW BRIEF/LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL IS DWINDLING CONSIDERABLY.
ALTHOUGH CHS RAOB INDICATED FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE
APCHG 2000 J/KG...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO STABILIZE IN
THAT REGION AND SSWWD OVER NRN FL WITH TIME...AS NEAR-SFC LAYER
COOLS DIABATICALLY. THAT FACTOR WILL RENDER INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS
MORE ELEVATED...AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR.
.EDWARDS.. 01/12/2008
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