SWODY1
SPC AC 250518
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST THU JAN 24 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SOUTHWARD-DIGGING IMPULSE REINFORCES
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FARTHER
EAST...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/TRANSITION EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AMIDST PREVALENT LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. WITH A COLD/STABLE AIRMASS AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY...ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHERN LA AND PERHAPS
COASTAL NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA.
..SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHERN LA...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL-ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE
SURFACE LAYER...AS NAM/NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT GRADUAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS INLAND LIKELY TO BE ROOTED AT 850 MB OR
ABOVE...ELEVATED MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 250 J/KG OR LESS WILL TEMPER
UPDRAFT VIGOR...SUGGESTIVE OF NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE/HAIL PROBABILITIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..COASTAL NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA...
WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST AROUND
128W...MOIST SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES AND SCANT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN DEEP ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.GUYER.. 01/25/2008
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