SWODY1
SPC AC 270027
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2008
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CA COAST...
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL CA COAST TOWARD THE
END OF THIS PERIOD. ASCENT AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE
AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN CA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MUCH OF THE CAPE IS
CONFINED TO LAYERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE -10C. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS INLAND WILL BE TOO SHALLOW
TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHTING ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE NEAR THE CNTRL CA COASTAL AREAS VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY.
..W CNTRL FL PENINSULA COAST...
EARLY THIS EVENING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CNTRL FL
PENINSULA TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ASCENT ON COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND DEEPER
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE E CNTRL GULF WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS. A WLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT AS ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SEWD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION. ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS INLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST.
.DIAL.. 01/27/2008
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