SWODY1
SPC AC 191239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2008
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER S TX AND THE ADJACENT
NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
LOSE AMPLITUDE TODAY WHILE PHASING WITH A LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVING
EWD FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE S OF THE LA COAST WILL MOVE EWD TODAY TO N FL ALONG
A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE...THOUGH THE LOW SHOULD FILL
GRADUALLY AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS.
..NRN/CENTRAL FL AREA THIS EVENING...
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO...NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. A
FEED OF 68-72 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE SRN GULF IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE OPEN GULF...AND
LESSER ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF THE FRONT. THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE N CENTRAL/NE GULF
COAST TODAY. FARTHER E...CENTRAL AND S FL WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO NEAR 70 F S FL COASTAL AREAS. THIS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION TODAY...THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY RATHER POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /ROUGHLY 6 C/KM/.
SOME INCREASE IN LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER FL WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE LARGER SCALE MS VALLEY TROUGH.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WELL NE OF FL. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF ROUGHLY 40
KT. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT STILL APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
.THOMPSON.. 01/19/2008
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