SWODY1
SPC AC 271629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2008
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
CA CST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OFF THE CNTRL CA CST IS OPENING INTO A TROUGH ATTM. THE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ENE TO THE ERN GRT BASIN BY 12Z MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW OFF THE BC CST AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS WA/ORE. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
34.5N/123.5W...OR ABOUT 150 MILES WNW OF VBG. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
LIFT NNE TO THE CNTRL CA CST LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE
DEFORMS/ELONGATES SWD INTO THE PACIFIC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...ORIGINAL DEEP FRONT/WARM CONVEYOR WITH OFFSHORE
SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED E ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA. A NEW SFC COLD
FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY EVOLVE FARTHER W OFF THE SRN/CNTRL CA
CST TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E ACROSS SRN CA THIS EVENING.
..CSTL CNTRL/SRN CA...
WHILE SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT...
NEAR-SFC SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CSTL AREAS OF SRN AND CNTRL CA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALSO PERSIST
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL VLY. MID-LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING VORT LOBE SHOULD SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER PARTS OF CA BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC
HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...SBCAPE COULD REACH
500-800 J/KG ALONG THE CST BY AFTN AS TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 60F.
OVERALL SETUP SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS BY AFTN AS 850-700 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF VORT
LOBE. TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES LIKELY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...WITH SFC-1KM VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KTS AND SRH AOA
250 M2/S2 AS DEEP SWLY SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 70 KTS. AS TSTMS
SPREAD/DEVELOP NE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN CA CST...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS...IN ADDITION TO WATERSPOUTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. A MORE
LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
E OVER SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL VLY. THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS
UPR LOW ACCELERATES INLAND.
.CORFIDI.. 01/27/2008
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