DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161259
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST WED JAN 16 2008

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM
FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NW
GULF EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NEWD AS UPSTREAM VORTS NOW OVER
WRN CO AND NRN CA AMPLIFY EWD AND SWD RESPECTIVELY.

AT THE SFC...WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SYSTEM...NOW LOCATED ABOUT
160 SSE OF GLS...SHOULD CONTINUE ENE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NRN
GULF TODAY. THE WAVE SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RVR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE E/ENE TO THE FL CSTL BEND
BY 12Z THURSDAY.

..NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE/WRN FL...
SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR
CONTINUING TO SPREAD WSW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE
ZONE WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF AFOREMENTIONED GULF SFC WAVE. AS THE
WAVE CONTINUES GENERALLY ENE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...EXPECT TSTMS
TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG CONFLUENCE BAND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE
INTO A LEWPY SQLN GIVEN AUGMENTATION OF SYSTEM-RELATIVE FLOW BY ELY
NEAR-SFC WINDS AND MODERATE TO STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT.

SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS OVER FL WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SW TO
NE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ATTM...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT EWD MOTION OF SQLN...AND ENEWD ACCELERATION OF
ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE...WILL BE TOO RAPID TO ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OVER FL BEFORE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGEST STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIKELY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL
STORM ROTATION AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KT.
THUS...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED CELLS IN THE SQLN
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE SE TO AROUND TPA.

.CORFIDI.. 01/16/2008

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