SWODY2
SPC AC 130545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
NATION ON MONDAY...WHILE AN INTENSE AND STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH EJECTS FROM SRN
NY NEWD TO EAST OF MAINE. A DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER SYSTEM...BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT ALSO SHIFTS
NEWD DURING THE PERIOD.
..SERN NEW ENGLAND...
THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND MUCAPES PERHAPS UP TO 50 J/KG. DESPITE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WINTER PCPN...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A
FEW LIGHTING STRIKES...MAINLY ACROSS RI AND FAR ERN MA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFFSHORE.
..PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...
ANOTHER INTENSE AND COLD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE
PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT SUPPORT DEEP ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR LIGHTNING.
THE REST OF THE NATION WILL BE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.IMY.. 01/13/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment