SWODY2
SPC AC 140547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION ON TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE EJECTION OF A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...IN RESPONSE TO AN
INTENSE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NWRN U.S TROUGH...A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.
ONE POSSIBLE LOCATION FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN TX
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER AZ...IS FORECAST
TO BE KICKED EWD ACROSS MEXICO...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ACROSS SRN TX AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY STABLE FROM THE
SFC-700 MB...BUT COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN
600-300 MB MAY PROVIDE FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION OF SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL DEPTH TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
.IMY.. 01/14/2008
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