SWODY2
SPC AC 280549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST...
THE UPR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO NRN CA WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY AND REACH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY TUE...THEN BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND LIFT INTO THE NERN STATES BY 12Z WED. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A 100+ KT
H5 JET MAX AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...OH VLY AND MIDWEST
REGIONS. THE SFC LOW ATTENDANT WITH THE IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY NWD FROM MO INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION ON TUE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WED.
A BROAD AND VIGOROUS SWLY LLJ WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MSTR NWD
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING TO NEAR 50
DEG F AS FAR N AS IND...AND INTO THE LWR 60S ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
BY TUE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-TROP WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/DEEP S...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATE IN THE AFTN. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPR SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE N ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GRTLKS REGION.
A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUE ACROSS THE
MID-MS VLY INTO NERN TX. SRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
GROW UPSCALE INTO PRE-FRONTAL LINES AS AFTN HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO
IMPROVED THERMODYNAMICS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...WITH RISKS FOR DMGG
WINDS/HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH EWD
EXTENT BY TUE NIGHT. ATTM...QUESTIONS ON THE OVERALL INSTABILITY
RENDERS HIGHLIGHTING A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK DIFFICULT. BUT...LOW
SVR PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
FARTHER N...VERY STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE UPR JET
COUPLED WITH VIGOROUS FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION/TSTMS. THE LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
OVER THE LWR OH VLY TUE AFTN...THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD INTO THE
MIDWEST...MID-OH VLY BY TUE EVENING. SUCH STRONG FORCING AND VERY
STRONG AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY SFC-BASED STORM. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED A
SLGT RISK EVENTUALLY...ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE MORE
ROBUST THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
.RACY.. 01/28/2008
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