SWODY3
SPC AC 070728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST MON JAN 07 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE
DAY THREE PERIOD AS WEAKENING SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
UPPER OH VALLEY DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND SREF DATA SETS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER
THE CNTRL OR SRN HIGH PLAINS.
..ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVEMENT OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INITIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP INLAND IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING...SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A MORE EWD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN THE ECMWF...WRF AND MAJORITY
OF SREF MEMBERS LEADS TO LESS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN
THESE SOLUTIONS...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED
IN THIS FORECAST.
.MEAD.. 01/07/2008
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