SWODY3
SPC AC 100749
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE INTENSIFICATION AND
EWD PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS WRN
AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY THREE PERIOD. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
CNTRL FL PENINSULA BEFORE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST.
..FL...
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST TO THE S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK...THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP
LAYER SPEED SHEAR INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE GULF WITH WIND PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST A
SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ERN GULF LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
.MEAD.. 01/10/2008
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