SWOD48
SPC AC 070949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST MON JAN 07 2008
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
STRONG TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ON DAY 4 /THU JAN 10TH/ AND THEN NEWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY 5 /FRI JAN 11TH/ PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH WITH
THE ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATING A SHARPER...MORE INTENSE SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THESE DIFFERENCES
ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
FROM THE CNTRL OR SRN LOW PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
IT APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO NEAR TERM TROUGH /REFERENCE
DAY 1 AND 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS/ SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST
PRIOR TO RETREATING NWD...ALLOWING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO QUICKLY
MOVE INLAND IN ADVANCE OF DAY 4 TROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
/ESPECIALLY IN THE CASE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES ON DAY 4. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE INTO DAY 5 FROM THE ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ARE GREAT ENOUGH SUCH THAT CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE SCENARIO REMAINS LOW...AND NO ADDITIONAL AREA WILL BE
DELINEATED.
THEREAFTER...RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED WELL S
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES
ARE ANTICIPATED.
.MEAD.. 01/07/2008
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