SWOD48
SPC AC 130920
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2008
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WED/THU...THOUGH DETAILS CONCERNING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH HAVE SHOWN GREAT VARIABILITY BETWEEN TO DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS RUNS.
LATEST GFS/MREF SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CONTAIN WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAN THE EURO. PREFER THE
EURO SOLUTION AS BUILDING RIDGE IN THE ERN PACIFIC WOULD FAVOR
STRONGER WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. GFS SURFACE LOW INTENSITY ON JAN 17TH
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MINORING OUT ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...THOUGH GFS WOULD FAVOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FL
PENINSULA ON DAY 5. HOWEVER...MUCH SLOWER EURO INDICATES MAIN SEVERE
POTENTIAL WOULD WAIT UNTIL DAY 7 AND/OR 8 AND IS MORE LIKELY FROM
THE NRN FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO ERN NC.
GIVEN THAT THIS EVOLVING TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORM EVENT FOR LATER THIS WEEK IS TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK ATTM.
.IMY.. 01/13/2008
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