SWOD48
SPC AC 270851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2008
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
.CNTRL/ERN GULF CST SVR POTENTIAL LATE THU INTO LATE FRI NIGHT...
THE STRONG LEAD UPR WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NERN STATES/SERN
CANADA BY WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE SRN PLAINS BY THU...BECOME
NEGATIVE-TILT AND MOVE TOWARD THE LWR GRTLKS/MID-OH VLY BY FRI/SAT.
ECMWF/CMC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL
SCENARIO AND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN
THE GULF ROUGHLY ALONG A KTPA-KCRP LATITUDE DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AS THE LOW/MID-LVL FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER
SYSTEM...GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK NWD. INITIALLY...THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERATE CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVER THE DEEP S/GULF
COASTAL REGION AS EARLY AS THU/THU NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE NWRN GULF THU AFTN...THEN DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL OR
ERN MS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR RAPID AND RELATIVELY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN...NEARLY 110 KTS OF SWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER WILL BE PSBL...ULTIMATELY
DEVELOPING INTO A PSBL SQUALL LINE. THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE OVR THE LWR MS VLY AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT...THEN EVOLVE
ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST AND PARTS OF THE DEEP S DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. EWD EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY
HOW QUICKLY THE UPR SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD AND HOW FAR NEWD THE
QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR RETURNS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST A MODEST SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PARTS OF SWRN/SCNTRL GA
AND THE FL PNHDL DURING FRI NIGHT.
.RACY.. 01/27/2008
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