SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060011
CAZ000-060515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST SAT JAN 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS OF CA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 060011Z - 060515Z
HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE/GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR LIKELY
INTO WEST-SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES COOLING CLOUD TOPS AS
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL SIERRA MOUNTAINS. LARGELY OWING TO COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE RATES/SCANT CAPE ARE SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE-HEAVY RATES. ALONG THESE LINES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
RELATIVELY STRONGEST/MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION...CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AS FAR EAST AS THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS. CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHORT TERM NAM/RUC/SREF GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA THROUGH LATE EVENING...WHERE SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND
4500-5000 FT PER LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS. ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO WEST-SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND A
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
SNOW WILL FAVOR HEAVY SNOW/POSSIBLE THUNDERSNOW WITH RATES OF 2-3
IN/HR...PERHAPS EVEN LOCALLY HEAVIER WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND/OR IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
.GUYER.. 01/06/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
37151957 37762002 38282035 38922046 38972006 38541958
37901901 36361825 36121853
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