SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072234
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-080000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/MUCH OF MO/CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...
VALID 072234Z - 080000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH #1 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KS/MUCH OF MO
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL...WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH OR EASTWARD
EXTENSION.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A STRONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR 70 F
TEMPERATURES/MID 50S F DEWPOINTS EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS WEST CENTRAL
IL AS OF 22Z. AS OBSERVATIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS/SEVERE HAIL ACROSS THE BULK OF TORNADO WATCH #1 THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY/HIGH SHEAR.
ONGOING STORMS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL HAVE A HISTORY
OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVEN
WHERE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL
IL...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WITH 300-400 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED LEWP DEVELOPMENT/LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WHILE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MORE DISCRETE FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MO/FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WEAKENING INHIBITION AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING.
.GUYER.. 01/07/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...ICT...
40349247 40459014 40248882 39578901 38279035 37159275
37069473 37159551 38129480 39159389
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