SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100925
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/NERN TX THRU SRN AR/NRN LA INTO NW MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100925Z - 101130Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SOME
HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN A NARROW
BROAD ARCING BAND FROM UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE UPPER
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN A ZONE OF STEEPER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE GENERALLY
MINIMIZED CAPE...AND...TO THIS POINT...SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOW UNDERWAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS
BORDER AREA...NEAR THE INFLECTION BETWEEN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. AS...MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FROM PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CAPE FOR
SATURATING LIFTED PARCELS...ABOVE SURFACE BASED INVERSION THROUGH
THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD
ELECTRIFICATION. THOUGH CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1000
J/KG...GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OR SO...MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IN
THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS.
.KERR.. 01/10/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
33728937 33359026 32539129 31949243 31759311 31419427
32009453 32769445 33459344 34569166 34939054 34748910
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment