SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170055
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-170500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST WED JAN 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...WRN SC...SWRN NC...FAR SERN TN
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 170055Z - 170500Z
COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF ONGOING MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
SNOW/SLEET TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO NEARLY ALL RAIN ALONG AND N OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NRN GA/WRN SC...WITH A TRANSITION TO
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MTNS OF FAR NERN GA. SNOW/SLEET
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE WRN CAROLINAS.
00Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ERN NC WITH E TO W RIDGE AXIS HOLDING ACROSS NRN GA/AL. WITH AN
E/NELY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT...AN INFLUX OF COOL/DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC /AS SAMPLED BY 00Z
GSO RAOB/. REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS DEPICT HIGHLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS INDICATIVE OF STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /NOW OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/...SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH 06Z.
LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AS
SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHERE FULL
LOW/MID-LEVEL SATURATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED /REF 00Z FFC RAOB/...A
SUBTLE NET WARMING OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL OCCUR. THIS
SLOW WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION OF SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN.
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NERN GA MTNS
WHERE LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S.
.GRAMS.. 01/17/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
35648244 34798170 34148168 33678210 33618304 33608393
33838500 34438556 35008522 35498457 35788322
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