MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0085

ACUS11 KWNS 251824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251824
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...NRN/CENTRAL MS...FAR
SWRN TN...NWRN AL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 251824Z - 260030Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO
0.10 IN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN LA/FAR SRN AR INTO
WCENTRAL MS.

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 32 F LINE EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF
DFW ESEWD TO NEAR SHV THEN EWD TO JUST NORTH OF JAN. VERY DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST 100-200 MB /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL CONTINUE TO INITIALLY
LIMIT PRECIPITATION RATES ON THE NERN EDGE OF THE INITIAL MID LEVEL
FORCING /NRN MS...SWRN TN AND NWRN AL/ THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SUB-FREEZING LAYER EXISTS BENEATH AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER TO SUPPORT LIGHT SLEET OVER THESE AREAS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...MODEST LOW LEVEL SATURATION HAS OCCURRED DUE TO THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION. THUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION /AIDED BY
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET/ WILL
SPREAD EWD FROM NERN TX ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND INTO CENTRAL MS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA/ SUGGESTS MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES
/UP TO 0.10 IN/HR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN LA/FAR SRN
AR INTO WCENTRAL MS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THIS
REGION BY 00Z. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
FORCING THIS WINTER EVENT...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END OVER NERN TX BY
00Z.

.CROSBIE.. 01/25/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

34079397 33699508 33329569 32909551 32589528 32309498
32129425 32059238 32319095 32558931 33608797 34338758
35098783 35298909 34979125 34489302

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