SWODY1
SPC AC 020544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC...APPEARS UNDERWAY. AND...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE TOWARD PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AS AN INTENSE MID/HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS
THE CREST OF A BUILDING NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE...AND NOSES TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. THE VIGOROUS IMPULSE IS
PROGGED INLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF PRECEDING SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES.
ONE OF THESE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES IS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE
OF SOME PHASING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PERTURBATION LIFTING
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC.
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN...A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INLAND ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AND...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE ONSET OF A RETURN
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS JUST NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
RECOVERING FROM THE MOST RECENT COLD INTRUSION.
..WRN GULF COAST INTO SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY...
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN ZONE OF BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS
UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS...INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT. LIFT COULD BE
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE APPROACH OF THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT RELATIVELY WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY ...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE POLAR IMPULSE.
..N CNTRL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
DESPITE STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
COOLING EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE VERY WEAK. SHORT-LIVED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BUT...ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
.KERR.. 02/02/2008
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