SWODY1
SPC AC 090533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH UPPER TROUGH AS IT
ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES
SATURDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER SRN
CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS A STRONG UPPER JET DROPS
SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
..S FL...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD INTO
THE NERN STATES DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL VEER TO NWLY ACROSS FL...REINFORCING THE FRONT OVER
SRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
..PORTION OF NERN STATES...
STEEPER...6.5-7 C/KM...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ATTEND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SPREAD NEWD
THROUGH THIS REGION. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WARM...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER DUE
TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM
AREA...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LIGHTNING COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
AOB 10% IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
..OH VALLEY...
VERY STEEP...8-8.5 C/KM...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL ATTEND AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX LOCATED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SEWD
ADVANCING JET AS IT MOVES INTO OH VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
VERY MARGINAL OWING TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THIS
FEATURE. IT APPEARS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE
OWING TO EXPECTED LIMITED CAPE.
.DIAL.. 02/09/2008
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