DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220555
SWODY1
SPC AC 220553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS/OHIO VALLEY...WHILE ONE OR MORE
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES CROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IN THE
WEST...STRONG MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST STATES DOWNSTREAM OF PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

..EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
AT LEAST ISOLATED EARLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN
MS/SOUTHERN AL AND PERHAPS THE FL PANHANDLE. WITHIN REGION OF
PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A PHASING/STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE
DAY. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WITH MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD
DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA AND NORTHERN
FL...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPES IN THE
AMBIENT WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS RICHER
THETA-E/MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEST-EAST WARM
FRONT WILL TEND TO CONFINE A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT TO
SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHERN GA/FL PANHANDLE...WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES AND PREVALENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE LEWPS. FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL
GA...THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO A
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

.GUYER.. 02/22/2008

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