SWODY1
SPC AC 231242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2008
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CENTRAL FL AREA TODAY...
OUTFLOW WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED SLOWLY SWD FROM NRN INTO
CENTRAL FL...WELL TO THE SE OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO NW GA. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS REDUCED
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS N FL/S GA...WHILE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS FARTHER NE ACROSS NC. FARTHER S
IN CENTRAL FL...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LARGER SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FL AS THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS LIFTS ENEWD TOWARD NC...THUS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK S OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO AOA 1500 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
..CENTRAL/ERN OK THIS EVENING INTO AR OVERNIGHT ...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE AZ/NRN NM WILL MOVE EWD
TO OK BY THIS EVENING AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED IN A BAND N OF
THE MID LEVEL JET CORE. FOCUSED LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY RESULT IN SATURATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM BY THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN OK IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL
WAVE...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS AR TONIGHT.
..CENTRAL CA COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
EWD TO CENTRAL/NRN CA BY TONIGHT. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN A BELT OF CONVECTION E OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW CENTER...AND EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS BAND INLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
SUGGESTS THAT ANY CONVECTION WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BASED IN THE MID LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
ISOLATED. LATER TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED
STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
CA COAST AND SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THOMPSON.. 02/23/2008
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