DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 252002
SWODY1
SPC AC 251959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD THROUGH
MS AND AL...

..ARKLATEX THROUGH MS AND AL...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS
SWWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM ERN
OK THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN TX. AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES OVER SERN TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING NNEWD ALONG A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH AN EWD
ADVECTING EML AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF 1000
TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRENGTH OF EML AND LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE
RETURN SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL
THE FRONT MERGES WITH DRYLINE AND INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS. ZONE OF
DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING THE FRONT AND DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY EARLY
EVENING.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AOA 60 KT AS MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE STRONGLY FORCED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGEST STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND MOIST ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT EWD INTO PARTS OF MS AND AL
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY MAY EVENTUALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THIS REGION.

.DIAL.. 02/25/2008

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