SWODY1
SPC AC 181258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SE
VA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER E CNTRL FL...
..SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE - CNTRL/ERN U.S. TROUGH PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND ITS SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY. AT
LWR LEVELS...DEEP LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD WITHDRAW
FARTHER NE ACROSS QUEBEC AS TRAILING COLD FRONT...NOW OVER THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APLCNS AND NW FL...SWEEPS E INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
..ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...
MAIN AXIS OF DEEP CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT SQLN HAS JUST
ABOUT CLEARED THE NC OUTER BANKS AND WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING. FARTHER W...A SHALLOWER/WEAKER AXIS OF
CONFLUENCE STILL APPEARS PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL MD SW INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE
FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE STEADILY E ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SE VA TODAY.
WHILE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/TROUGH LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...IT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RENEWED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
REGION...GIVEN SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
STLT/WIND DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF AN IMPULSE NOW OVER AR/NRN MS
THAT WILL GLANCE THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH EVEN
MODEST HEATING...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND STRONGLY SHEARED
WIND FIELD /60+ KT SSWLY DEEP SHEAR/...SETUP SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR SCTD STORMS/SHORT BROKEN LINES WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN.
..NRN/CNTRL FL...
COLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED UPR TROUGH HAS CAUGHT
UP WITH PREFRONTAL SQLN OVER NW FL AND THE NERN GULF IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. AREA VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL THROUGH THE DAY.
WHILE AMPLE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK. CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO BE WEAK...EXCEPT PERHAPS INVOF E CST
SEA BREEZE FRONT. A COUPLE STORMS MAY YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS
IN THAT AREA THROUGH LATE AFTN.
.CORFIDI.. 02/18/2008
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