SWODY1
SPC AC 021627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NRN CA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 110-130 KT
MID-UPPER JET WILL MOVE SEWD TO THE NRN/CENTRAL CA AREA BY TONIGHT.
A RESIDUAL COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INLAND AND ONLY VERY WEAK MID
LEVEL BUOYANCY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
WILL BE TOO MARGINAL FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA. STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INLAND IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY A
COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. STILL...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
..E/SE TX AREA TONIGHT...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OF MID-UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN GULF. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NWD TO THE TX COAST TODAY AND E TX TONIGHT IN A DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /SAMPLED
BY 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS S/SW TX/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE RETURNING
MOISTURE AND RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS E/SE TX AND SW LA...BUT
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE DAY 2
PERIOD.
.THOMPSON.. 02/02/2008
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