DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020657
SWODY2
SPC AC 020655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG/AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD...WITH A
RESULTING AMPLIFICATION IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRN TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST IS FORECAST TO
MOVE/REDEVELOP EWD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

..OZARKS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF
THE LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION...THOUGH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FEATURE ONLY
PARTIALLY-MODIFIED GULF AIR. FURTHER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
TX/OK SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BY A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER INVOF
H8.

ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MO AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD...AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE
MOVES ENEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN BROADER WSWLY FLOW PATTERN.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATION...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY HAIL TO SUB-SEVERE SIZE.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR FROM LA NEWD...WHERE WEAKER CAPPING SHOULD BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES -- AND THUS VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY -- SUGGEST THAT VIGOROUS STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

..GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...
SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STEEP
LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

.GOSS.. 02/02/2008

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